This paper constructs and uses a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model for South Africa to examine the economywide consequences of a continued deterioration in performance of state-owned enterprises and rise in foreign interest rates. A decline in state-owned enterprisesproductivity has substantial negative ramifications on the rest of the economy. Government would increase its domestic borrowing and therefore hamper private investment, leading to a decrease in gross domestic product and rising unemployment, particularly the unskilled. The model shows that the effects get worse in the long run compared to the short run and when foreign interest rates increase. Preparedness and awareness of these economywide consequences point to the importance of addressing the problems of competitiveness in the state-owned entities.

中文翻译：

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国有企业业绩恶化对南非经济的影响

本文构建并使用南非的递归动态一般均衡模型来检验国有企业业绩持续恶化和外国利率上升对经济的影响。国有企业生产力的下降对其他经济部门产生了重大的负面影响。政府将增加其国内借贷，从而阻碍私人投资，导致国内生产总值下降和失业率上升，尤其是非熟练工人。该模型表明，与短期和外国利率上升相比，长期影响会变得更糟。对这些经济后果的准备和认识表明了解决国有实体竞争力问题的重要性。