Since 2011, a wide range of unhealthy food and drink are subject to a specific excise tax in Hungary. We analyze how this tax affected the revenue, sales volume, personnel costs, and size of sweet food producers, and compare these results to estimated effects on household spending on sugary food. We base our analysis on administrative data sets of firm level indicators, and survey data on household spending. We apply the estimation method of difference-in-differences, where firms producing untaxed processed food (in the firm level analysis) and household spending on food categories directly not affected by the tax (in the household level analysis) serve as control groups. Our results suggest strong negative short-run effects of the unhealthy food tax on firms’ inland sales volume, and moderate effects on inland sales revenue and personnel costs. These results correspond to the moderate estimated effects on household spending on sugary food. The reducing effects diminish in about 3 years after the introduction of the tax—overlapping with the recovery of the Hungarian economy from recession. Our findings suggest that the impacts of an unhealthy food tax strongly depend on the economic conditions.

中文翻译：

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甜食税对生产者和家庭支出的影响——来自匈牙利的证据

自 2011 年以来，匈牙利对各种不健康的食品和饮料征收特定消费税。我们分析了这项税收如何影响甜食生产商的收入、销售量、人员成本和规模，并将这些结果与对家庭含糖​​食品支出的估计影响进行比较。我们的分析基于公司层面指标的行政数据集和家庭支出调查数据。我们应用差异中的估计方法，其中生产免税加工食品的公司（在公司层面分析中）和家庭在食品类别上的支出直接不受税收影响（在家庭层面分析中）作为对照组。我们的研究结果表明，不健康食品税对企业内陆销售量有强烈的短期负面影响，而对内陆销售收入和人员成本有中等影响。这些结果对应于对家庭含糖​​食品支出的适度估计影响。在引入税收后大约 3 年内，减少的效果减弱——与匈牙利经济从衰退中复苏相重叠。我们的研究结果表明，不健康食品税的影响在很大程度上取决于经济状况。