Abstract—

A new method for assessing the response of biota to climatic changes in the ecosystem has been tested. In the Central Forest Natural Biosphere Reserve, the average annual air temperature between 1990 and 2019 was 4.8 ± 0.13°C (increasing at a rate of 0.35°C per 10 years), and the amount of precipitation was 781 ± 22.9 mm/year (22.6 mm per 10 years). A significant change in the timing of the seasonal activity has been determined for 11 phenological phenomena in nine bird species (52%). The clustering of phenological events in birds depends on the pattern of their seasonal migrations, the effect of agro- and hydrometeorological and trophic factors, and on whether spring or autumn phenological dates are used. Along with multivariate statistical methods, the integral index based on the standardized deviation makes it possible to unify the meteorological series and phenological traits on a biologically and statistically sound basis for improving the sensitivity of indicative properties of the biota under conditions of climatogenic changes.

中文翻译：

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作为气候变化指标的鸟类物候事件变化分析

摘要——

一种评估生物群对生态系统气候变化响应的新方法已经过测试。中央森林自然生物圈保护区1990—2019年年均气温为4.8±0.13℃（以每10年0.35℃的速度递增），降水量为781±22.9毫米/年（每 10 年 22.6 毫米）。已确定 9 种鸟类 (52%) 的 11 种物候现象的季节性活动时间发生了显着变化。鸟类物候事件的聚集取决于它们季节性迁徙的模式、农业和水文气象和营养因素的影响，以及是否使用春季或秋季物候日期。结合多元统计方法，