Abstract

This study introduces reliability assessment models for heat exchanging systems in deep-sea manned submersibles based on the Markov analysis method. Three distinct design systems—a series solution and two series–parallel solutions, considering cold and hot standby components—were presented. In addition, the state transition models of the Markov random process were established with relation to common-cause failures. Moreover, the calculation methods were derived for the two reliability indices of the heat exchange system: steady state availability and mean time to failure. Thus, the reliability of various design solution cases was investigated by comparing the reliability indices with variations in the failure and repair rates. The influence of common-cause factors on the system reliability was discussed as well. Furthermore, design solutions were suggested based on the results of the quantitative calculations and analysis.

摘要

本研究介绍了基于马尔可夫分析方法的深海载人潜水器换热系统可靠性评估模型。展示了三种不同的设计系统——一个串联解决方案和两个串联-并联解决方案，同时考虑了冷热备用组件。此外，建立了与共因故障相关的马尔可夫随机过程的状态转移模型。此外，推导出热交换系统的两个可靠性指标的计算方法：稳态可用性和平均故障时间。因此，通过将可靠性指标与故障率和修复率的变化进行比较，研究了各种设计解决方案案例的可靠性。讨论了共因因素对系统可靠性的影响。此外，