The economic literature has been forceful on the role of fiscal institutions in attenuating economic fluctuations. In particular, the implementation of fiscal rules has gained importance in the toolkit of macroeconomic stabilization policies. This paper studies the effect of fiscal rule implementation on sovereign default risk and on the probability of capital flow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that fiscal rules are beneficial for macroeconomic stability, as they significantly reduce both sovereign risk and the probability of a sudden stop in countries that implement them. These results, which are robust to various empirical specifications, have important policy implications specially for countries that have relaxed their fiscal rules in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

经济文献对财政制度在减缓经济波动方面的作用一直很有说服力。特别是，财政规则的实施在宏观经济稳定政策工具包中变得越来越重要。本文研究了包括发达和新兴市场经济体在内的大量国家的财政规则实施对主权违约风险和资本流动逆转概率的影响。结果表明，财政规则有利于宏观经济稳定，因为它们显着降低了主权风险和实施它们的国家突然停止的可能性。这些结果对各种经验规范都是稳健的，