Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

在全球范围内，雷暴是造成大部分降雨的原因，中纬度地区通常会产生极端天气，包括大冰雹、龙卷风和破坏性大风。尽管如此重要，但全球雷暴频率及其伴随灾害在过去 4 年中发生了怎样的变化仍不清楚。应用于全球气候模型的大规模诊断表明，未来雷暴的频率及其强度可能会增加。在这里，我们表明，根据 ERA5，对流可用势能 (CAPE) 和对流降水 (CP) 在热带和亚热带地区减少，同时 0-6 公里风切变 (BS06) 增加。反过来，rawinsonde 观测在中纬度地区描绘了一幅不同的画面，CAPE 增加，BS06 显着下降。在某些地区观察到的 ERA5 和原始探空仪之间的不同趋势和分歧表明，应谨慎解释结果，尤其是对于跨热带地区的 CAPE 和 CP，那里的不确定性最高，并且缺少可靠的长期原始探空仪观测。