Purpose

Financial bankruptcy is inevitable in the tourism and hospitality ecosystem. Despite the pertinence of tourism and hospitality businesses going into bankruptcy, limited studies have investigated the early warning signs and likelihood of a financial bankruptcy occurring in tourism and hospitality firms. This study examined the predictive value of financial ratios as potential indicators in predicting bankruptcy among tourism and hospitality firms.

Design/methodology/approach

Altman's z-score bankruptcy prediction model was applied through five key financial ratios to predict bankruptcy of the Thomas Cook Travel Group over a ten year period (2008–2018).

Findings

The key findings of this study strongly suggest that besides the size and location of the firm, financial ratios are reliable predictors and play a pivotal role in predicting the bankruptcy of a tourism and hospitality business.

Practical implications

The paper provides key stakeholders to adopt checks and balances to identify financial distressed tourism firms through financial ratios.

Originality/value

This is the first academic paper to inspect the financial history of Thomas Cook Travel Group in a financial ratio context, particularly following the bankruptcy of the firm in 2019.

中文翻译：

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Thomas Cook(ed)：使用 Altman 的 z 分数分析来检查旅游和酒店业财务破产的预测因素

目的

在旅游和酒店生态系统中，财务破产是不可避免的。尽管旅游和酒店企业破产的相关性，有限的研究调查了旅游和酒店公司发生财务破产的早期预警信号和可能性。本研究检验了财务比率作为预测旅游和酒店公司破产的潜在指标的预测价值。

设计/方法/方法

Altman 的z分数破产预测模型通过五个关键财务比率应用来预测 Thomas Cook Travel Group 在十年期间（2008-2018 年）的破产情况。

发现

本研究的主要发现有力地表明，除了公司的规模和位置之外，财务比率是可靠的预测指标，并且在预测旅游和酒店业的破产方面发挥着关键作用。

实际影响

该文件提供了主要利益相关者采用制衡机制，通过财务比率来识别陷入财务困境的旅游公司。

原创性/价值

这是第一篇在财务比率背景下检查 Thomas Cook Travel Group 财务历史的学术论文，尤其是在该公司于 2019 年破产之后。