The rounding of point forecasts of CPI inflation and the unemployment rate by U.S. Professional Forecasters is modest. There is little evidence that forecasts are rounded to a greater extent in response to higher perceived uncertainty surrounding future outcomes. There is clear evidence that the probability of decline forecasts are rounded: over half of the forecast probabilities of decline in the current quarter are multiples of ten. It is found here that the rounding of these probabilities correlates with worse accuracy, although it is also of note here that worse (less accurate) forecasters might round more as opposed to the degree of rounding per se worsening accuracy. By simulating the loss from rounding for a set of efficient forecasters, it is demonstrated that the explanation that respondents round otherwise efficient forecasts is implausible, and that the contribution of rounding is of minor importance.

美国专业预报员对 CPI 通胀和失业率的点数预测的四舍五入是适度的。几乎没有证据表明预测在更大程度上四舍五入以应对围绕未来结果的更高的感知不确定性。有明显证据表明，下降预测的概率是四舍五入的：本季度预测下降概率的一半以上是 10 的倍数。在这里发现，这些概率的舍入与更差的准确性相关，尽管这里还值得注意的是，与舍入程度本身相反，更差（不太准确）的预测者可能会舍入更多准确性恶化。通过模拟一组有效预测器的舍入损失，表明受访者对其他有效预测进行舍入的解释是不可信的，并且舍入的贡献是次要的。