Kriging metamodel is an effective method for slope reliability analysis because of its flexibility and accuracy in data interpolation. However, the accuracy of traditional Kriging metamodel needs to be improved when facing complex limit state functions in slope stability problems. In addition, traditional Kriging metamodel cannot provide the key component—slope failure consequence—for risk assessment of slope failure, which greatly hinders the application of the Kriging method. This paper develops a multiple Kriging (MK) metamodels method to address the above problems within the framework of limit equilibrium method. The proposed MK metamodels are developed by simultaneously establishing a Kriging metamodel for each potential slip surface of a slope, with a global optimization search for the correlation parameters by the genetic algorithm. Slope stability analysis is then efficiently performed on the MK metamodels to obtain the associated factor of safety (FS) and locate the critical slip surface (CSS). Since the FS and the associated CSS are available, slope reliability analysis and risk assessment can be conducted with ease, thereby circumvent the abovementioned issues. For illustration and validation, the proposed model is applied to two examples, including a two-layered cohesive soil slope and a practical case of the Congress Street cut slope in Chicago. Both the influence of regression models and correlation models on the accuracy of the MK metamodels are discussed. The results show that the proposed model is more accurate than the conventional model in estimating the slope failure probability. More importantly, it is shown that the proposed model can effectively assess the risk of slope failure, which greatly extends the application scope of the Kriging based method.

克里金元模型因其数据插值的灵活性和准确性而成为边坡可靠性分析的有效方法。然而，在边坡稳定性问题中面临复杂的极限状态函数时，传统克里金元模型的精度需要提高。此外，传统的克里金元模型不能提供边坡破坏风险评估的关键组成部分——边坡破坏后果，这极大地阻碍了克里金方法的应用。本文在极限平衡法的框架内开发了一种多重克里金（MK）元模型方法来解决上述问题。所提出的 MK 元模型是通过同时为斜坡的每个潜在滑面建立克里金元模型而开发的，并通过遗传算法对相关参数进行全局优化搜索。然后在 MK 元模型上有效地执行边坡稳定性分析，以获得相关的安全系数 (FS) 并定位临界滑动面 (CSS)。由于FS和相关CSS可用，可以轻松进行边坡可靠性分析和风险评估，从而规避上述问题。为了说明和验证，所提出的模型被应用于两个例子，包括一个两层粘性土斜坡和芝加哥国会街切割斜坡的一个实际案例。讨论了回归模型和相关模型对 MK 元模型准确性的影响。结果表明，所提出的模型在估计边坡破坏概率方面比传统模型更准确。更重要的是，