Inpatient violence poses a great risk to the health and well-being of other patients and members of staff. Previous research has shown that prevalence rates of violent behavior are particularly high in forensic psychiatric settings. Thus, the reliable identification of forensic inpatients who are particularly at risk for violent behavior is an important aspect of risk management. In the present study, we analyzed clinicians’ assessments of N = 504 male and female inpatients of German forensic mental health institutions in order to identify risk factors for verbal institutional violence. Using a tree-based modeling approach, we found the following variables to be predictors of verbal aggression: gender, insight into the illness, number of prior admissions to psychiatric hospitals, and insight into the iniquity of the offence. A high number of prior admissions to psychiatric hospitals seems to be a risk factor for verbal aggression amongst men whereas it showed the opposite effect amongst women. Our results highlight the importance of dynamic risk factors, such as poor insight into the own illness, in the prediction of violent incidents. With regard to future research, we argue for a stronger emphasis on nonparametric models as well as on potential interaction effects of risk and protective factors.

住院暴力对其他患者和工作人员的健康和福祉构成巨大风险。先前的研究表明，暴力行为的流行率在法医精神病学环境中特别高。因此，可靠地识别特别有暴力行为风险的法医住院患者是风险管理的一个重要方面。在本研究中，我们分析了临床医生对N= 504 名德国法医心理健康机构的男性和女性住院患者，以确定言语机构暴力的风险因素。使用基于树的建模方法，我们发现以下变量是言语攻击的预测因素：性别、对疾病的洞察力、先前入住精神病院的次数以及对罪行罪恶的洞察力。大量先前入住精神病院似乎是男性言语攻击的一个危险因素，而它在女性中表现出相反的效果。我们的结果强调了动态风险因素在暴力事件预测中的重要性，例如对自身疾病的洞察力不足。关于未来的研究，