Abstract

The objective of this study is to empirically assess the effect of government decisions on market growth in response to social distancing initiatives, government reactions, economic support provision, and containment and health responses, to name a few. A panel dataset of daily stock market returns is analysed in this study, changes in COVID-19 cases, and government responses to 17 countries in the Pacific and South Asia from 1st January 2020 to 31st December 2020. Findings indicate that social distancing policies have a significant negative effect on stock returns but a substantial positive impact on market growth when new cases' growth rate declines after accounting for country characteristics and systematic risk due to foreign factors. A direct negative effect is seen almost immediately, and a subsequently indirect positive effect is noted. As expected, policies regarding social distancing have an immediate negative impact, attributed mainly to the expected negative effect on economic activity. Subsequently, we see an indirect positive effect on market return because social distancing measures reduced the growth of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Both awareness, containment, and health index (ACHI) and Income Support and Debt Relief Index (ISDRI) positively affect market growth, as they are perceived to support individuals' socio-economic well-being and mainly result in positive market returns.

摘要

本研究的目的是根据经验评估政府决策对市场增长的影响，以应对社会疏远举措、政府反应、经济支持提供以及遏制和健康反应等。本研究分析了每日股市回报的面板数据集、COVID-19 病例的变化以及政府对 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日期间太平洋和南亚 17 个国家/地区的反应。结果表明，社会疏远政策具有考虑到国家特征和外来因素造成的系统性风险，当新增病例增长率下降时，对股票收益有显着的负面影响，但对市场增长有很大的积极影响。几乎立即可以看到直接的负面影响，并注意到随后的间接积极影响。正如预期的那样，关于社会疏离的政策会立即产生负面影响，主要归因于预期对经济活动的负面影响。随后，我们看到对市场回报的间接积极影响，因为社会疏离措施减少了确诊的 COVID-19 病例的增长。意识、遏制和健康指数 (ACHI) 以及收入支持和债务减免指数 (ISDRI) 都对市场增长产生积极影响，因为它们被认为支持个人的社会经济福祉，主要带来积极的市场回报。我们看到对市场回报的间接积极影响，因为社会隔离措施减少了确诊的 COVID-19 病例的增长。意识、遏制和健康指数 (ACHI) 以及收入支持和债务减免指数 (ISDRI) 都对市场增长产生积极影响，因为它们被认为支持个人的社会经济福祉，主要带来积极的市场回报。我们看到对市场回报的间接积极影响，因为社会隔离措施减少了确诊的 COVID-19 病例的增长。意识、遏制和健康指数 (ACHI) 以及收入支持和债务减免指数 (ISDRI) 都对市场增长产生积极影响，因为它们被认为支持个人的社会经济福祉，主要带来积极的市场回报。