ABSTRACT

I use the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of international banking and energy sanctions from 2012 to 2015 on Iran’s military spending. I created a counterfactual Iran, a synthetic control group, that mimics the socioeconomic characteristics of Iran before the international sanctions of 2012. Then I compare the military spending of the counterfactual Iran without sanctions to the factual Iran with sanctions for the period of 2003–2015. Over the entire 2013–2015 period, per capita military spending was reduced by approximately 117 US$ per year on average. The main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. Estimated confidence sets show that the decrease in Iran’s military spending after the 2012 sanctions is also statistically significant.

摘要

我使用综合控制方法来估计 2012 年至 2015 年国际银行和能源制裁对伊朗军费开支的影响。我创建了一个反事实伊朗，一个合成控制组，它模仿 2012 年国际制​​裁之前伊朗的社会经济特征。然后我比较了没有制裁的反事实伊朗与 2003-2015 年期间有制裁的事实伊朗的军费开支. 在整个 2013-2015 年期间，人均军费开支平均每年减少约 117 美元。主要发现对包括安慰剂测试在内的一系列测试都是稳健的。估计的信心集显示，2012 年制裁后伊朗军费开支的减少也具有统计学意义。