Spatial management has been adopted worldwide to mitigate habitat impacts while achieving fisheries management objectives. However, there is little theory or practice for predicting the impact of spatial regulations on future fishery production; this would provide scientific basis for greater flexibility in fisheries management when balancing fishery and conservation goals. We propose that predicting changes in fishery production resulting from human activities within specific habitats is a “Grand Challenge” for habitat science in the coming decade(s). We then outline three difficulties in resolving this Grand Habitat Challenge, including: (i) stage-structured responses to habitat impacts, (ii) nonlocal responses, and (iii) mechanistic associations among habitat variables. We next discuss analytical approaches to address each difficulty, respectively: (i) ongoing developments for spatial demographic models; (ii) individual movement models and rank-reduction approaches to identify regional variability; (iii) causal analysis involving structural equation models. We demonstrate nonlocal effects in detail using a diffusion-taxis movement model applied to sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the Gulf of Alaska and discuss all three approaches for deep-sea corals. Despite isolated progress to resolve individual difficulties, we argue that resolving this Grand Habitat Challenge will require a coordinated commitment from science agencies worldwide.

中文翻译：

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栖息地科学的巨大挑战：阶段结构响应、非本地驱动因素以及影响渔业生产力的栖息地变量之间的机械关联

空间管理已在世界范围内被采用，以减轻栖息地影响，同时实现渔业管理目标。然而，几乎没有理论或实践来预测空间规则对未来渔业生产的影响；这将为在平衡渔业和养护目标时提高渔业管理灵活性提供科学依据。我们建议预测特定栖息地内人类活动导致的渔业生产变化是未来十年栖息地科学的“重大挑战”。然后，我们概述了解决这一大栖息地挑战的三个困难，包括：（i）对栖息地影响的阶段结构响应，（ii）非本地响应，以及（iii）栖息地变量之间的机械关联。我们接下来讨论解决每个困难的分析方法，分别为： (i) 空间人口模型的持续发展；(ii) 识别区域变异性的个体运动模型和降级方法；(iii) 涉及结构方程模型的因果分析。我们使用应用于黑貂鱼的扩散滑行运动模型详细展示了非局部效应（Anoplopoma fimbria）并讨论深海珊瑚的所有三种方法。尽管在解决个人困难方面取得了孤立的进展，但我们认为解决这一大栖息地挑战需要全球科学机构的协调承诺。