Abstract Ireland’s milk production sector relies on grass-based spring-calving systems, which facilitates cost advantages in milk production but entails a high degree of supply seasonality. Among other implications, this supply seasonality involves extra costs in the processing sector including elevated plant capacities and varying levels of resource utilisation throughout the year. If both the national raw milk production increased substantially (e.g. post-milk quota) and a high degree of seasonality persisted, extra processing capacities would be required to cope with peak supplies. Alternatively, existing capacities could be used more efficiently by distributing the milk volume more evenly during the year. In this analysis, an optimisation model was applied to analyse the costs and economies arising to an average Irish milk-processing business due to changes to the monthly distribution of milk deliveries and/or the total annual milk pool. Of the situations examined, changing from a seasonal supply prior to expansion to a smoother pattern combined with an increased milk pool emerged as the most beneficial option to the processor because both the processor’s gross surplus and the marginal producer milk price increased. In practice, it may however be the case that the extra costs arising to the producer from smoothing the milk intake distribution exceed the processor’s benefit. The interlinkages between the stages of the dairy supply chain mean that nationally, the seasonality trade-offs are complex and equivocal. Moreover, the prospective financial implications of such strategies will be dependent on the evolving and uncertain nature of international dairy markets in the post-quota environment.

中文翻译：

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爱尔兰牛奶生产和加工的季节性和扩张成本

摘要 爱尔兰的牛奶生产部门依赖于以草为基础的春季产犊系统，这有利于牛奶生产的成本优势，但需要高度的供应季节性。除其他影响外，这种供应季节性涉及加工部门的额外成本，包括提高工厂产能和全年不同水平的资源利用。如果全国原奶产量大幅增加（如产奶后配额）且高度季节性持续，则需要额外的加工能力来应对供应高峰。或者，可以通过在一年中更均匀地分配牛奶量来更有效地利用现有容量。在这个分析中，应用优化模型来分析由于每月牛奶交付量和/或年度牛奶池总量的变化而给爱尔兰牛奶加工企业带来的成本和经济。在所研究的情况中，从扩张前的季节性供应转变为更平稳的模式并结合增加奶池成为对加工商最有利的选择，因为加工商的总剩余和边际生产者牛奶价格都增加了。然而，在实践中，生产商因平滑牛奶摄入量分配而产生的额外成本可能会超过加工商的收益。乳制品供应链各个阶段之间的相互联系意味着在全国范围内，季节性权衡是复杂而模棱两可的。而且，