Abstract Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1 month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17 months and 5 months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices.

中文翻译：

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预测每月鲶鱼 (Ictalurus punctatus.) 池塘库和饲料价格

摘要 鲶鱼池库和饲料价格的波动导致鲶鱼行业利润的不确定性。分析影响这些价格的因素并开发预测模型将为鲶鱼养殖场管理者提供指导。在开发单方程 ARIMAX 模型之后，指定了基于变量之间协整关系的误差校正模型 (ECM)。被确定为影响鲶鱼价格的因素是：鲶鱼、饲料和替代产品价格的滞后价值，而影响饲料价格的因素是：饲料、玉米和大豆价格的滞后价值。ECM 估计表明，鱼价在 1 个月内调整约 6%，饲料价格调整 22% 至长期均衡。分析表明，修正鲶鱼和饲料价格的长期不平衡分别需要不到 17 个月和 5 个月的时间。ARIMAX 模型表现出更适合鲶鱼价格的样本内和样本外预测，并且对饲料价格具有更好的样本外预测能力。