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Rainfall regionalization and variability of extreme precipitation using artificial neural networks: a case study from western central Morocco
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.217
Abdelhafid El Alaoui El Fels 1 , Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi 1 , Assma Bouiji 2 , Mounia Benrhanem 3
Affiliation  

Here, we investigate the precipitation regionalization and the spatial variability of rainfall extremes, using a 47-year long station-based dataset from western central Morocco, a region with marked topographic and climatic variations. The principal component analysis revealed three homogeneous rainfall regimes, consistent with topographic features: the coastal area receives heavy rainfall during autumns and winters, whereas the inner lowlands, in the middle of the study area, are characterized by an overall rainfall deficit regardless of their high water demand for irrigation, and the highest rainfall amounts take place in the mid-mountain area, including the summer seasons. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of daily rainfall extremes revealed high ten-year precipitation amounts in the coastal region (about 88 mm) and exceptional daily precipitation for longer return periods (182 mm for a 100-year period). Using artificial neural networks, the spatialization of these extreme precipitation events shows that they increase from the plain to the Atlas mountains and especially from the plain to the Atlantic Ocean. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation highlights the areas where stormwater management needs to be improved, such as efficient stormwater drainage, and where floods are more likely to take place in the future.



中文翻译:

使用人工神经网络的极端降水的降雨区域化和变异性:来自摩洛哥中西部的案例研究

在这里,我们使用来自摩洛哥中西部的一个长达 47 年的基于站的数据集来研究降水区域化和极端降雨的空间变异性,该地区具有显着的地形和气候变化。主成分分析揭示了三种均质降雨情况,与地形特征一致:沿海地区在秋季和冬季收到强降雨,而位于研究区中部的内陆低地的特点是总体降雨不足,无论其高低。灌溉用水需求最大,中山地区降雨量最大,包括夏季。此外,每日极端降雨的频率分析显示,沿海地区十年降水量很高(约 88 毫米),而且重现期较长(100 年期间为 182 毫米)的日降水量异常。使用人工神经网络,这些极端降水事件的空间化表明它们从平原到阿特拉斯山脉,特别是从平原到大西洋增加。极端降水的空间分布突出了需要改进雨水管理的区域,例如有效的雨水排放,以及未来更可能发生洪水的地方。这些极端降水事件的空间化表明它们从平原到阿特拉斯山脉,特别是从平原到大西洋增加。极端降水的空间分布突出了需要改进雨水管理的区域,例如有效的雨水排放,以及未来更可能发生洪水的地方。这些极端降水事件的空间化表明它们从平原到阿特拉斯山脉,特别是从平原到大西洋增加。极端降水的空间分布突出了需要改进雨水管理的区域,例如有效的雨水排放,以及未来更可能发生洪水的地方。

更新日期:2021-06-11
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