In recent years, research on the effect of uncertainty on the results of structural system identification in order to effectively enhance structural safety has been rarely conducted. This paper studies identification and uncertainty quantification of structural flexibility from ambient vibration measurements to develop an efficient reliability analysis. The structural deflection with a confidence interval can be predicted under static loads via the uncertainty quantification on structural flexibility, and can then be used for the reliability analysis of the deflection serviceability limit state. First, the evaluation method for the uncertainty bounds of the modal parameters by a first-order perturbation analysis is reviewed. Then, the perturbation analysis method is extended to structural flexibility identification with considering the uncertainty in the identified modal parameters and the uncertainty in the reduced mass matrix. In addition, the structural deflection and its confidence interval under static load can be simultaneously derived with the identified structural flexibility. Eventually, by combining fuzzy criteria with the confidence intervals of the deflection prediction under the ultimate design load, the reliability index of the deflection serviceability limit state can be formulated. Both numerical and experimental examples were conducted to verify the efficiency of the proposed method. This study provides a scheme to directly link the structural identification with the structural safety evaluation.

近年来，为了有效提高结构安全性，研究不确定性对结构系统辨识结果的影响的研究很少。本文研究了从环境振动测量中对结构柔性的识别和不确定性量化，以开发有效的可靠性分析。通过结构柔性的不确定性量化，可以在静载荷下预测具有置信区间的结构挠度，然后用于挠度正常使用极限状态的可靠性分析。首先，回顾了基于一阶微扰分析的模态参数不确定性界限的评估方法。然后，微扰分析方法被扩展到结构柔性识别，同时考虑了识别的模态参数的不确定性和减少的质量矩阵的不确定性。此外，静载荷下的结构挠度及其置信区间可以与确定的结构柔性同时导出。最终，将模糊判据与极限设计载荷下挠度预测的置信区间相结合，可得到挠度正常使用极限状态的可靠性指标。进行了数值和实验实例以验证所提出方法的有效性。本研究提供了一种将结构识别与结构安全评估直接联系起来的方案。