ABSTRACT

This work performs an analysis of the spatial pattern of the coffee harvested area in the Rio de Janeiro state between 1988 and 2018. To relate changes in land cover and land use with the coffee land abandonment, geographically weighted regressions (GWR) were adopted with the rates of change in forest and pasture cover, and also with changes in the size of the cattle herd. The coffee-crop area evolution identifies three behaviors: the concentration of planted area in the northwest, with constant growth after the 1990s; a remaining area in the mountainous region; and the abandonment of coffee farms in the south. Although bivariate models can’t explain the changes in land cover and land use, geographically weighted regressions point to a trend of replacing coffee cover with pasturelands in the south region of the state, while eventual changes for forest cover are more likely in other regions.

摘要

这项工作对 1988 年至 2018 年里约热内卢州咖啡收获区的空间格局进行了分析。为了将土地覆盖和土地利用的变化与咖啡土地废弃联系起来，采用了地理加权回归 (GWR)森林和牧场覆盖率的变化率，以及牛群规模的变化。咖啡种植面积演变确定了三种行为：种植面积集中在西北部，1990 年代后持续增长；山区的剩余地区；以及南部咖啡农场的废弃。虽然双变量模型无法解释土地覆盖和土地利用的变化，但地理加权回归表明该州南部地区有用牧场取代咖啡覆盖的趋势，