We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

我们估计了经济合作与发展组织 37 个成员国在 COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段以及 10 月至 10 月期间，一套全面的非药物干预措施对经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 37 个成员国的 COVID-19 疫情增长率的影响。 2020 年 12 月。对于这项任务，我们使用具有最大似然和贝叶斯估计的多级建模方法进行了数据驱动的纵向分析。我们发现，疫情初期，实施100人以上、11至100人、10人以下聚集性限制，平均减少2.58%、2.78%和2.81%。每周确诊病例的每日增长率；要求关闭某些部门或除必要工作场所外的所有工作场所，平均减少 1.51% 和 1.78%；要求关闭部分学校或所有学校，平均减少1.12%或1.65%；建议戴口罩平均减少0.45%，要求全国特定公共场所或特定地理区域戴口罩，平均减少0.44%，要求全国所有公共场所或所有公共场所戴口罩无法保持社交距离的公共场所平均减少0.96%；每千人口检测次数平均每增加一个单位减少0.02%。 2020年10月至12月期间，停工要求和检测政策是疫情增长率的重要预测因素。这些发现为支持有关实施哪些 NPI 来控制 COVID-19 大流行的传播的政策决策提供了证据。