Abstract

Our Civilization is the most complex natural system we know. Its further progressive development is impossible without a constant increase in energy consumption to overcome entropic processes and, accordingly, constant dissipation of this energy into the environment. Hence, with time, irrespective of the nature of the energy sources used, a violation of the thermal balance of the planet and an increase in the temperature of its surface are inevitable. The concept of sustainable development, drawing attention to the fight against the consequences of the anthropogenic impact of Civilization, does not consider this irreparable contradiction in the development of Civilization under the conditions of limited resources and the scale of the encompassing planet. Without giving an answer to this global challenge, extremely costly environmental measures only increase the anthropogenic pressure on nature. Until more realistic ideas about the ways of development of Civilization and respective strategic decisions are elaborated, the most rational tactic is not to fight against inevitable changes but to prepare for the upcoming transformations.

中文翻译：

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可持续发展理念与文明的现实挑战

摘要

我们的文明是我们所知道的最复杂的自然系统。如果不不断增加能源消耗来克服熵过程，并因此不断地将这种能量耗散到环境中，它的进一步发展是不可能的。因此，随着时间的推移，无论所用能源的性质如何，地球热平衡的破坏和地表温度的升高都是不可避免的。可持续发展的概念提请人们注意对抗文明的人为影响的后果，并没有考虑在资源有限和地球规模有限的情况下文明发展中这种无法弥补的矛盾。不回答这个全球性挑战，极其昂贵的环境措施只会增加对自然的人为压力。在对文明的发展方式和各自的战略决策提出更现实的想法之前，最合理的策略不是与不可避免的变化作斗争，而是为即将到来的变革做好准备。