To identify potentially suitable areas for the mostly alpine ecological guild of nivicolous (snowbank) myxomycetes, the worldwide distribution of a distinct morphospecies, Physarum albescens, was modelled with a correlative spatial approach using the software MaxEnt from 537 unique occurrence points. Three models were developed, first with only the 19 bioclimatic variables plus elevation from the WorldClim database, second with regularization to correct for pseudo-absence, and third with additional categorical environmental layer on snow cover. All three models showed high mean AUC (area under the curve) values (>0.970). Output maps were comparable, with the third model perhaps the most realistic. For this model, snow cover, precipitation of the coldest quarter (of the year), and elevation predicted best the distribution of Ph. albescens. Elevation alone is a good predictor only in some regions, since (i) elevation of the occurrence points decreases with increasing latitude, and (ii) elevation wrongly predicts the species’ occurrence in arid mountain ranges. The model showed mountains in humid climates with highest incidence, which confirmed field studies: a long-lasting snow cover fluctuating with comparatively mild summers is the decisive factor. As such, the model can serve as a predictive map where fructifications of nivicolous myxomycetes can be expected. Limitations of the model are discussed: cryptic speciation within a morphospecies, including the evolution of reproductively isolated units which may lead to local adaptation and niche differentiation, and wider ranges for myxamoebal populations.

为了鉴定nivicolous（雪堤）粘菌的大多是高寒生态公会可能适宜的地区，独特的形态种，在全世界的分布绒泡albescens，是用从537个独特的发生时刻的软件一个最大墒相关空间方法来模拟。开发了三个模型，第一个只有 19 个生物气候变量加上 WorldClim 数据库中的海拔，第二个是正则化以纠正伪缺失，第三个是雪盖上的附加分类环境层。所有三个模型都显示出高平均 AUC（曲线下面积）值（>0.970）。输出地图具有可比性，第三个模型可能是最真实的。对于这个模型，积雪，最冷季度的降水（当年），海拔高度最能预测Ph. albescens的分布. 仅在某些地区，海拔是一个很好的预测指标，因为 (i) 发生点的海拔随着纬度的增加而降低，以及 (ii) 海拔错误地预测了该物种在干旱山脉中的出现。该模型显示山区的潮湿气候发生率最高，这证实了实地研究：长期积雪与相对温和的夏季波动是决定性因素。因此，该模型可以用作预测图，其中可以预期幼年粘菌的结果。讨论了该模型的局限性：形态种内的隐性物种形成，包括可能导致局部适应和生态位分化的生殖隔离单位的进化，以及粘虫种群的更广泛范围。