In this article, we analyzed the morphological evolution of the sunspot and solar calcium plage groups recorded at the Ebro Observatory in the period 1910–1937 to make predictions about several properties of these solar structures by using Markov chain models. For this purpose, we first checked the applicability of first and second order models to all the data series by carrying out dependency tests, which ensure that the current morphological type presented by the structures has a dependence with the morphology presented in previous observations. Next, as a first approximation, we applied the first order Markov chain model to the total number of transitions between the different morphological types of sunspots and solar plage groups to estimate the probability of occurrence associated with each transition, the prevalence time that these structures spend within each morphological type, the extinction-occultation forecast, the expectation of these structures converting into a determined morphological type, and the occurrence daily rate associated to each type after a certain number of transitions. In addition, we also analyzed the observed morphology of the structures at the time of their appearance and extinction. Our main results show that both sunspots and solar plage groups become morphologically stable after their transition to a new type. Nevertheless, this stability seems to decrease once the decay phase starts and their morphology changes to the observed type during the last stage of their evolution sequence. Finally, we also studied the temporal and spatial homogeneity of the data, concluding that the two solar structures evolve with similar patterns in the northern and southern hemispheres, but both Solar Cycles 15 and 16 as well as each solar cycle phase, i.e. solar minimum, ascending phase, solar maximum and descending phase, present small deviations in all the analyzed properties. These deviations may affect some aspects of the morphological evolution of both sunspots and solar plage groups.

在本文中，我们分析了 1910 年至 1937 年期间在埃布罗天文台记录的太阳黑子和太阳钙斑群的形态演化，以通过使用马尔可夫链模型对这些太阳结构的几个特性进行预测。为此，我们首先通过执行依赖性测试来检查一阶和二阶模型对所有数据系列的适用性，以确保结构呈现的当前形态类型与先前观察中呈现的形态具有依赖性。接下来，作为一级近似，我们将一阶马尔可夫链模型应用于不同形态类型的太阳黑子和太阳斑群之间的转变总数，以估计与每个转变相关的发生概率，这些结构在每种形态类型中花费的流行时间，灭绝-掩星预测，这些结构转换为确定的形态类型的期望，以及在一定数量的转换后与每种类型相关的每日发生率。此外，我们还分析了观察到的结构出现和消失时的形态。我们的主要结果表明，太阳黑子和太阳斑群在转变为新类型后在形态上变得稳定。然而，一旦衰变阶段开始，并且它们的形态在演化序列的最后阶段变为观察到的类型，这种稳定性似乎就会降低。最后，我们还研究了数据的时空同质性，结论是这两个太阳结构在北半球和南半球以相似的模式演化，但第 15 和 16 太阳周期以及每个太阳周期阶段，即太阳活动极小期、上升阶段、太阳活动极大期和下降阶段，在所有方面都存在小偏差分析的属性。这些偏差可能会影响太阳黑子和太阳斑群形态演化的某些方面。