Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.

鉴于大金融危机 (GFC) 之后宏观审慎措施越来越受欢迎，某些抵押贷款市场出现的一个关键政策问题是，由于这些新政策，潜在房主是否存在获得大量信贷的机会。在本文中，我们评估了此类问题是否出现在爱尔兰抵押贷款市场的背景下——该市场尤其受到全球金融危机的不利影响。我们使用微观模拟模型来估计在谨慎的信用风险评估和当前的宏观审慎监管的情况下市场可以提供服务的潜在信贷需求水平。然后我们将这种需求与当前的市场供给进行比较，以探讨是否存在信贷缺口。最后，我们模拟了公共抵押信贷计划或股权“帮助购买”类型的工具如何帮助获得信贷。