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Financing COVID-19, Inflation and the Fiscal Constraint
Forum for Social Economics ( IF 0.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-02 , DOI: 10.1080/07360932.2020.1792176
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira 1
Affiliation  

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is producing an economic depression that, however, could be substantially reduced if the state in each country, besides making the required health spending, compensates the companies and households that are losing with the social distance and lockdown policies. Governments, however, limit their expenditures not to increase the public debt. There is, however, the possibility that central banks buy new securities from the Treasury to finance such exceptional spending. Considering several economic constraints that policymakers face, this policy will not conflict with the inflation constraint. Money is an endogenous variable that does not cause but just validates a going inflation. It conflicts partially with the fiscal constraint, but avoids the increase in the public debt. And, in this case, it does not have the bad consequences of fiscal indiscipline—excess demand that, successively, causes increases in imports and current account deficits that appreciate the national currency, accelerate inflation, and lead to currency crises. Monetary financing of the COVID-19 will not cause any of these three evils.

中文翻译:

为 COVID-19、通货膨胀和财政约束融资

摘要 COVID-19 大流行正在造成经济萧条,但是,如果每个国家的州除了提供所需的卫生支出外,还补偿因社会距离和封锁政策而遭受损失的公司和家庭,那么经济萧条可能会大幅减少。然而,政府限制其支出以免增加公共债务。然而,中央银行有可能从财政部购买新证券来为这种特殊支出提供资金。考虑到政策制定者面临的几个经济约束,该政策不会与通胀约束发生冲突。货币是一种内生变量,它不会导致但只会验证持续的通货膨胀。它与财政约束部分冲突,但避免了公共债务的增加。而且,在这种情况下,它不会产生财政无纪律的不良后果——需求过剩,继而导致进口增加和经常账户赤字,从而使本国货币升值、加速通货膨胀并导致货币危机。COVID-19 的货币融资不会导致这三害中的任何一个。
更新日期:2020-07-02
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