Purpose

This paper aims to review prior studies and presents a synthesis of the takeover prediction literature spanning the period 1968–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adopts a narrative review approach. It explores prior studies on takeover target prediction from a historical perspective, focusing on the evolution and development of the literature over the 50-year period.

Findings

From a historical development perspective, prior studies in the area can be partitioned into four distinct eras. Studies in the first era (1968–1985) mainly established that takeover targets share common characteristics which can be captured with financial ratios. Studies in the second era (1986–2002) developed and extended formal target prediction hypotheses. These studies concluded that it was impossible to build a successful investment strategy around takeover target prediction. Studies in the third era (2003–2009) explored similar questions using alternative modelling techniques but arrive at similar results – targets can be predicted with limited accuracy and target prediction is unlikely to lead to abnormal returns. Studies in the fourth era (2010–2018) explore implications of M&A predictability on share valuation, governance and bond prices (amongst others), but most importantly, provide some evidence that takeover prediction can lead to abnormal returns when combined with appropriate screening strategies.

Originality/value

This presents the first in-depth review of the literature on takeover target prediction. It highlights the development of the literature over four distinct eras and identifies several limitations, research gaps and opportunities for future research. Given the recent decline in the literature (i.e. fourth era), this study may stimulate new research in the area.

中文翻译：

---

收购目标预测研究五十年：历史视角

目的

本文旨在回顾先前的研究，并对 1968 年至 2018 年期间的收购预测文献进行综合。

设计/方法/方法

论文采用叙述性审查的方法。它从历史的角度探讨了先前关于收购目标预测的研究，重点关注 50 年间文献的演变和发展。

发现

从历史发展的角度来看，该地区的先前研究可以划分为四个不同的时代。第一个时代（1968-1985）的研究主要确立了收购目标具有共同的特征，可以用财务比率来捕捉。第二个时代（1986-2002）的研究发展并扩展了正式的目标预测假设。这些研究得出的结论是，围绕收购目标预测制定成功的投资策略是不可能的。第三个时代（2003-2009 年）的研究使用替代建模技术探索了类似的问题，但得出了类似的结果——目标的预测精度有限，目标预测不太可能导致异常回报。第四个时代（2010-2018 年）的研究探讨了并购可预测性对股票估值的影响，

原创性/价值

这是对收购目标预测文献的首次深入回顾。它突出了四个不同时代的文献发展，并确定了一些局限性、研究差距和未来研究的机会。鉴于最近文献的下降（即第四纪元），这项研究可能会刺激该领域的新研究。