Ensuring aggregate food price stability requires a forward-looking assessment of the risk that unexpected deviations in individual food items’ inflation lead to large shocks in the aggregate food price inflation. To do so, we propose using a multivariate GARCH framework in combination with the Euler method to (1) estimate the conditional standard deviation and quantiles of the food price inflation shocks and (2) attribute the total risk to the underlying food items. For the FAO food price index, we find that even though meat inflation systematically has the highest weight in the aggregate index, cereal inflation is the main contributor to the total food price inflation risk over the period 1990–2018. The use of time series models and the Cornish-Fisher expansion make the risk characterization forward-looking and a potentially helpful tool for risk management.

确保总体食品价格稳定需要对个别食品通胀的意外偏差导致总体食品价格通胀的巨大冲击的风险进行前瞻性评估。为此，我们建议将多元 GARCH 框架与欧拉方法结合使用，以 (1) 估计食品价格通胀冲击的条件标准偏差和分位数，以及 (2) 将总风险归因于基础食品。对于粮农组织食品价格指数，我们发现尽管肉类通胀系统地在综合指数中具有最高权重，但谷物通胀是 1990-2018 年期间食品价格通胀风险的主要贡献者。