Beliefs of professional forecasters are benchmarked against those of a Bayesian econometrician $\mathcal{BE}$ who is learning about the unknown dynamics of the bond risk factors. Consistent with rational Bayesian learning, the forecast errors of individual professionals and $\mathcal{BE}$ are comparably predictable over the business cycle. The secular and cyclical patterns of professionals' forecasts relative to those of $\mathcal{BE}$ are explored in depth. Inconsistent with many models with belief dispersion, the relationship between professionals' yield disagreement and their matched disagreements about macroeconomic fundamentals is very weak.

中文翻译：

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总统讲话：债券市场风险溢价有多少“合理性”？

专业预测者的信念以贝叶斯计量经济学家的信念为基准 $\mathcal{是}$谁正在了解债券风险因素的未知动态。与理性贝叶斯学习一致，个别专业人士的预测误差和$\mathcal{是}$在商业周期中具有可预测性。专业人士预测的长期和周期性模式相对于$\mathcal{是}$进行了深入探讨。与许多信念分散的模型不一致，专业人士的收益率分歧与他们对宏观经济基本面的匹配分歧之间的关系非常弱。