Elucidating the mechanisms of fluctuations in fish populations are key to sustainable fisheries management. However, limited data combined with climate variability and fishing further constrain our understanding of fish population dynamics. Fortunately, marine sedimentary archives of fish abundance and environmental changes in the past, may provide new insights into long-term fish population fluctuations. Here, we used 150-year sediment records of the abundance of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) scales, phytoplankton, and zooplankton biomarkers, and δ¹⁵N data previously reported from the central Yellow Sea (YS). We discussed the linkages of the anchovy abundance to ecosystem structure and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Principal component analysis (PCA) identified negative effects of strong stratification (higher δ¹⁵N) and high abundance of haptophytes (higher alkenone content) on the anchovy stock through our analytical period (~1860–2005 AD). In addition, we found positive relationships between the anchovy abundance and plankton productivity in proxies before the period of intense fishing (1860–1980 AD), indicating bottom-up processes affecting the anchovy stock. However, the bottom-up processes became unclear under excessive fishing. This was possibly due to overfishing becoming a major driver after 1980, thereby altering the cascading of the marine ecosystem towards a different structure. Climate variability seems to indirectly influence the anchovy stock through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from the changes in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) or the Pacific North American pattern (PNAP). The impacts of these changes on the hydrodynamic features of YS in turn influence the productivity of plankton prey for the anchovy. Collectively, our findings suggest that synergistic effects of climate and fishing on the anchovy need to be paid greater attention. Our results also contribute to an improved understanding of fish population fluctuations in other seas.

阐明鱼类种群波动的机制是可持续渔业管理的关键。然而，有限的数据加上气候变化和捕鱼进一步限制了我们对鱼类种群动态的理解。幸运的是，过去鱼类丰度和环境变化的海洋沉积档案可以为长期鱼类种群波动提供新的见解。在这里，我们使用了 150 年日本鳀鱼 ( Engraulis japonicus ) 鳞片、浮游植物和浮游动物生物标志物丰度的沉积物记录，以及 δ ¹⁵先前从黄海中部 (YS) 报告的 N 数据。我们讨论了凤尾鱼丰度与生态系统结构和海面温度 (SST) 之间的联系。主成分分析 (PCA) 确定了强分层的负面影响（较高的 δ ¹⁵N) 和在我们的分析时期（公元 1860 年至 2005 年）鳀鱼种群中触生菌的丰度（较高的烯酮含量）。此外，我们发现在密集捕捞时期（公元 1860-1980 年）之前，鳀鱼丰度与浮游生物生产力之间存在正相关关系，表明自下而上的过程影响了鳀鱼种群。然而，在过度捕捞的情况下，自下而上的过程变得不清楚。这可能是由于过度捕捞在 1980 年后成为主要驱动因素，从而将海洋生态系统的级联改变为不同的结构。气候变化似乎通过北太平洋环流振荡 (NPGO) 或太平洋北美模式 (PNAP) 变化的级联效应，通过自下而上的控制间接影响鳀鱼种群。这些变化对 YS 的水动力特征的影响反过来又会影响鳀鱼的浮游生物猎物的生产力。总的来说，我们的研究结果表明，需要更加关注气候和捕鱼对鳀鱼的协同效应。我们的结果还有助于更好地了解其他海域的鱼类种群波动。