Deterministic sea wave prediction (DSWP) provides an effective way of predicting time history for a fixed point or spatial wave elevation on a fixed snapshot. DSWP models are realized by assimilating various phase-resolved wave models and measured wave data. For a given prediction accuracy level, the predictable zone is affected by the distance between the measurement and forecasting locations, the measured wave data length, and the sea condition. In this present research, we investigated the spatial–temporal predictable zone of long-crested waves based on the linear wave theory for the purpose of DSWP model optimization. We give the fundamental reason for the unpredictable zone in DSWP and then derive the theoretical representation for the predictable temporal-spatial zone. It can be seen that the theoretical results are highly consistent with the experimental results. The results of the predictable temporal-spatial zone provide a direct and effective way for the optimization of DSWP models.

确定性海浪预测 (DSWP) 提供了一种在固定快照上预测固定点或空间波浪高程的时间历史的有效方法。DSWP 模型是通过同化各种相位分辨波模型和实测波数据来实现的。对于给定的预测精度水平，可预测区域受测量和预测位置之间的距离、测量的波浪数据长度和海况的影响。在本研究中，我们基于线性波理论研究了长顶波的时空可预测区，以优化 DSWP 模型。我们给出了 DSWP 中不可预测区域的根本原因，然后推导出可预测时空区域的理论表示。可以看出，理论结果与实验结果高度一致。可预测时空带的结果为DSWP模型的优化提供了直接有效的方法。