ABSTRACT

John Maynard Keynes’s Treatise on Probability (1921) and Frank Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921) independently stressed the distinction between insurable risk and uninsurable fundamental uncertainty (in Knight’s terminology), inspiring two literatures that have engaged with each other only intermittently. I explore the relationship between what Keynes wrote about uncertainty in his Treatise and what Knight published the same year, and consider what contributions by Truman Bewley and by Kiyohiko Nishimura and Hiroyuki Ozaki on Knightian uncertainty and Knightian decision theory have to offer for furthering understanding of Keynes on uncertainty, particularly as suggesting a response to Alan Coddington’s critique of the risk/uncertainty distinction.

摘要

约翰梅纳德凯恩斯的概率论(1921) 和弗兰克奈特的风险、不确定性和利润(1921) 独立强调了可保风险和不可保基本不确定性之间的区别（在奈特的术语中），启发了两篇只是间歇性地相互接触的文献。我探讨了凯恩斯在他的论文中关于不确定性的内容与奈特同年发表的内容之间的关系，并考虑了杜鲁门·比利、西村清彦和尾崎博之对奈特式不确定性和奈特式决策理论的贡献，以进一步理解凯恩斯关于不确定性，特别是作为对艾伦科丁顿对风险/不确定性区别的批评的回应。