Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggests that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. The bulk of empirical DOHaD literature does not consider the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the population level. In particular, it ignores the distortion of age and cohort patterns of adult health and mortality and the increased load of chronic illness and disability that ensues. In this paper, we use a microsimulation model combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and associated disability in low- and middle-income countries to assess the magnitude of delayed effects on adult healthy life expectancy and on compression (or expansion) of morbidity at older ages. The main goal is to determine if, in what ways, and to what extent delayed effects due to early conditions can influence cohorts’ chronic illness and disability profiles.

来自健康和疾病发展起源 (DOHaD) 理论的证据表明，经历不利的早期生活条件随后会导致有害的成人健康结果。大部分实证 DOHaD 文献没有考虑人口层面不利早年生活条件影响的性质和程度。特别是，它忽略了成人健康和死亡率的年龄和队列模式的扭曲，以及随之而来的慢性病和残疾负担的增加。在本文中，我们使用微观模拟模型结合低收入和中等收入国家肥胖、2 型糖尿病和相关残疾的发病率和患病率的经验估计，以评估对成人健康预期寿命和压缩的延迟影响的程度（或扩大）老年人的发病率。