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Seismic Hazard Analysis for the South-Central Coastal Region of Bangladesh Considering the Worst-Case Scenario
Pure and Applied Geophysics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s00024-021-02770-7
A. S. M. Maksud Kamal , Momtahina Mitu , Md. Shakhawat Hossain , M. Moklesur Rahman , Md. Zillur Rahman

There is a long history of catastrophic earthquakes in and around Bangladesh due to the ongoing collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. In this study, deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is carried out for the south-central coastal region of Bangladesh. As a case study, important locations (i.e., Kumirmara, Nilganj, Dhulasar, Moudubi, and Char Muntaz) are selected to identify the areas that will experience the maximum and minimum seismic hazards if a catastrophic earthquake occurs. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at bedrock and ground surface conditions are estimated considering the worst-case scenario by using all possible seismogenic sources, controlling earthquakes, and two sets of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The GMPEs and seismotectonic maps are used to determine the controlling earthquakes and the shortest distances from the sources to study areas. It is predicted that the Chittagong-Tripura folded belt (CTFB) source, which is located at the shortest distance from the selected areas, may produce the maximum magnitude earthquake. As the ground motion intensities depend on the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the sources, the maximum ground motion (PGA and SA) is observed for the CTFB source. The estimated maximum and minimum PGA values are 0.535 g and 0.301 g at the reference bedrock conditions in Char Muntaz and Kumirmara, respectively. It is observed that at all conditions and for all sources, Char Muntaz will experience the greatest ground motion and Kumirmara will experience the least ground motion. The result of this study will help to select the areas for the development of critical infrastructure in the coastal region of Bangladesh.



中文翻译:

考虑最坏情况的孟加拉国中南部沿海地区的地震灾害分析

由于印度板块和欧亚板块的持续碰撞,孟加拉国及其周边地区的灾难性地震历史悠久。在这项研究中,对孟加拉国中南部沿海地区进行了确定性地震危险性分析 (DSHA)。作为案例研究,选择重要位置(即,Kumirmara、Nilganj、Dhulasar、Moudubi 和 Char Muntaz)来确定发生灾难性地震时将经历最大和最小地震危险的区域。基岩和地表条件下的峰值地面加速度 (PGA) 和频谱加速度 (SA) 值是通过使用所有可能的震源、控制地震和两组地面运动预测方程 (GMPE) 来估计最坏情况的。GMPEs 和地震构造图用于确定控制地震和从震源到研究区的最短距离。据预测,距选定区域最近的吉大港-特里普拉褶皱带(CTFB)震源可能会产生最大震级地震。由于地震动强度取决于地震震级和距震源的距离,因此观测到 CTFB 震源的最大地面运动(PGA 和 SA)。在 Char Muntaz 和 Kumirmara 的参考基岩条件下,估计的最大和最小 PGA 值分别为 0.535 g 和 0.301 g。据观察,在所有条件和所有来源下,Char Muntaz 将经历最大的地面运动,而 Kumirmara 将经历最少的地面运动。

更新日期:2021-06-10
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