This paper examines the response uncertainty of flexible loads in the multi-time scale operation of an AC/DC hybrid distribution system. The price-based demand response (PBDR) model is established based on the principle of consumer psychology and the law of actual response uncertainty. The incentive mechanism of the incentive-based demand response (IBDR) model is designed considering the error of actual response capacity. Then, fuzzy chance-constrained programming is adopted to handle the response uncertainty of flexible loads. A multi-time scale dispatch model considering the response uncertainty of flexible loads for an AC/DC hybrid distribution system is proposed, which involves a day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time dispatch scheme. Mixed integer second-order cone programming (MISOCP) is utilized to solve the established multi-time scale dispatch model. Case studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, by considering the response uncertainty of flexible loads and the coordinated optimization on multiple time scales, peak shaving and valley filling can be realized and the dispatching cost of network can be reduced.

本文研究了交直流混合配电系统多时间尺度运行中柔性负载的响应不确定性。基于价格的需求响应（PBDR）模型是根据消费者心理原理和实际响应不确定性规律建立的。基于激励的需求响应（IBDR）模型的激励机制是考虑到实际响应能力的误差而设计的。然后，采用模糊机会约束规划来处理柔性载荷的响应不确定性。针对交直流混合配电系统，提出了一种考虑柔性负载响应不确定性的多时间尺度调度模型，该模型涉及日前、日内和实时调度方案。利用混合整数二阶锥规划（MISOCP）来求解已建立的多时间尺度调度模型。案例研究表明了该模型的有效性，通过考虑柔性负载响应的不确定性和多时间尺度的协调优化，可以实现削峰填谷，降低电网调度成本。