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Assessing complex failure scenarios of on-board distributed systems using a Markov chain
Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-30 , DOI: 10.1080/20464177.2019.1673032
A. C. Habben Jansen 1 , E. A. E. Duchateau 2 , A. A. Kana 1 , J. J. Hopman 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT Vulnerability reduction is an important topic during the design of naval ships because they are designed to operate in hostile environments and because their on-board distributed systems are becoming increasingly complex. The vulnerability needs to be addressed in the early design stages already, in order to prevent expensive or time-consuming modifications in later, more detailed design stages. However, most existing methods for assessing the vulnerability are better suited for more detailed design stages. Furthermore, existing methods often rely on pre-defined damage scenarios, while damage – or system failure in general – may also occur in ways that were not expected beforehand. This paper proposes a method that addresses these gaps. This is done by incorporating several additions to an existing vulnerability method that has been developed by the authors, using a Markov chain. With this method, there is no longer a need for modelling individual hits or failure scenarios. The additions are illustrated by two test cases. In the first one, a notional Ocean-going Patrol Vessel is considered, and damage is related to physical locations in the ship. The second test case considers a chilled water distribution system in more detail, with failures modelled independent from the physical architecture. The quantitative nature of the results provide an indication of the generic, overall vulnerability of the distributed systems, which is meant to be used in the early design stages for identifying trade-offs and prioritising capabilities.

中文翻译:

使用马尔可夫链评估车载分布式系统的复杂故障场景

摘要 减少脆弱性是海军舰艇设计过程中的一个重要课题,因为它们被设计用于在敌对环境中运行,并且它们的舰载分布式系统变得越来越复杂。该漏洞需要在早期设计阶段得到解决,以防止在后期更详细的设计阶段进行昂贵或耗时的修改。然而,大多数现有的评估漏洞的方法更适合更详细的设计阶段。此外,现有方法通常依赖于预先定义的损坏场景,而损坏——或一般的系统故障——也可能以事先未预料到的方式发生。本文提出了一种解决这些差距的方法。这是通过在作者使用马尔可夫链开发的现有漏洞方法中加入几个补充来完成的。使用这种方法,不再需要对单个命中或故障场景进行建模。添加的内容通过两个测试用例进行说明。在第一个中,考虑了名义上的远洋巡逻船,损坏与船上的物理位置有关。第二个测试案例更详细地考虑了冷冻水分配系统,故障建模与物理架构无关。结果的定量性质提供了分布式系统通用的整体脆弱性的指示,旨在用于早期设计阶段,以确定权衡和优先功能。使用这种方法,不再需要对单个命中或故障场景进行建模。添加的内容通过两个测试用例进行说明。在第一个中,考虑了名义上的远洋巡逻船,损坏与船上的物理位置有关。第二个测试案例更详细地考虑了冷冻水分配系统,故障建模与物理架构无关。结果的定量性质提供了分布式系统通用的整体脆弱性的指示,旨在用于早期设计阶段,以确定权衡和优先功能。使用这种方法,不再需要对单个命中或故障场景进行建模。添加的内容通过两个测试用例进行说明。在第一个中,考虑了名义上的远洋巡逻船,损坏与船上的物理位置有关。第二个测试案例更详细地考虑了冷冻水分配系统,故障建模与物理架构无关。结果的定量性质提供了分布式系统通用的整体脆弱性的指示,旨在用于早期设计阶段,以确定权衡和优先功能。考虑了名义上的远洋巡逻船,损坏与船上的物理位置有关。第二个测试案例更详细地考虑了冷冻水分配系统,故障建模与物理架构无关。结果的定量性质提供了分布式系统通用的整体脆弱性的指示,旨在用于早期设计阶段,以确定权衡和优先功能。考虑了名义上的远洋巡逻船,损坏与船上的物理位置有关。第二个测试案例更详细地考虑了冷冻水分配系统,故障建模与物理架构无关。结果的定量性质提供了分布式系统通用的整体脆弱性的指示,旨在用于早期设计阶段,以确定权衡和优先功能。
更新日期:2019-09-30
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