Agroforestry (AF)-based adaptation to global climate change can consist of (1) reversal of negative trends in diverse tree cover as generic portfolio risk management strategy; (2) targeted, strategic, shift in resource capture (e.g. light, water) to adjust to changing conditions (e.g. lower or more variable rainfall, higher temperatures); (3) vegetation-based influences on rainfall patterns; or (4) adaptive, tactical, management of tree-crop interactions based on weather forecasts for the (next) growing season. Forty years ago, a tree physiological research tradition in aboveground and belowground resource capture was established with questions and methods on climate-tree-soil-crop interactions in space and time that are still relevant for today’s challenges. After summarising early research contributions, we review recent literature to assess current levels of uncertainty in climate adaptation assessments in and through AF. Quantification of microclimate within and around tree canopies showed a gap between standard climate station data (designed to avoid tree influences) and the actual climate in which crop and tree meristems or livestock operates in real-world AF. Where global scenario modelling of ‘macroclimate’ change in mean annual rainfall and temperature extrapolates from climate station conditions in past decades, it ignores microclimate effects of trees. There still is a shortage of long-term phenology records to analyse tree biological responses across a wide range of species to climate variability, especially where flowering and pollination matter. Physiological understanding can complement farmer knowledge and help guide policy decisions that allow AF solutions to emerge and tree germplasm to be adjusted for the growing conditions expected over the lifetime of a tree.

基于农林业 (AF) 的全球气候变化适应可以包括 (1) 作为通用投资组合风险管理策略逆转不同树木覆盖的负面趋势；(2) 有针对性、战略性地改变资源捕获（例如光、水）以适应不断变化的条件（例如降雨量更低或更多变、温度更高）；(3) 植被对降雨模式的影响；或 (4) 基于（下一个）生长季节的天气预报对树木作物相互作用进行适应性、战术性管理。四十年前，建立了地上和地下资源捕获的树木生理学研究传统，其中提出了关于气候-树木-土壤-作物在空间和时间上相互作用的问题和方法，这些问题和方法仍然与当今的挑战相关。在总结了早期的研究贡献后，我们回顾了最近的文献，以评估在 AF 中和通过 AF 进行的气候适应评估的当前不确定性水平。树冠内部和周围小气候的量化显示标准气候站数据（旨在避免树木影响）与现实世界 AF 中作物和树木分生组织或牲畜运行的实际气候之间存在差距。在过去几十年中，从气候站条件推断出的平均年降雨量和温度“大气候”变化的全球情景模型忽略了树木的小气候效应。仍然缺乏长期物候学记录来分析各种物种对气候变化的树木生物反应，尤其是在开花和授粉很重要的地方。