This paper applies the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) statistical downscaling method to 12 general circulation models to produce 21st century projections of fire weather variables over Victoria, Australia, under two emissions scenarios. The statistically downscaled model data accurately replicate the observed distributions of meteorological variables over the contemporary period, but underestimate fire danger extremes in some models. Under each climate scenario, both mean and extreme fire danger are expected to increase. Though there is variation across Victoria, the 12-model average by year for RCP8.5 indicates a 10–20% increase in extreme (99th percentile) Forest Fire Danger Index across the state, with the greatest change projected in the north-west region. At five geographically and climatologically different locations across Victoria, there is a 50–200% increase in the number of days per year exceeding the threshold for the Victorian Very High or higher fire danger rating by the end of the century compared with the start. The high-end warming (RCP8.5) scenario shows increased temperature to be the main driver of heightened fire danger. Changes in temperature, humidity and precipitation during spring and early summer both increase the length of the fire season and may reduce springtime opportunities for prescribed burning.

本文将多元自适应构造类比 (MACA) 统计降尺度方法应用于 12 个一般环流模型，以在两种排放情景下对澳大利亚维多利亚州的火灾天气变量进行 21 世纪预测。统计缩小的模型数据准确地复制了当代气象变量的观测分布，但在某些模型中低估了极端火灾危险。在每种气候情景下，平均和极端火灾危险预计都会增加。尽管维州各地存在差异，但 RCP8.5 的 12 个模型平均每年表明全州极端（第 99 个百分位）森林火灾危险指数增加了 10-20%，预计西北地区的变化最大. 在维多利亚州的五个地理和气候不同的地点，与本世纪末相比，每年超过维多利亚州非常高或更高火灾危险等级阈值的天数增加了 50-200%。高端变暖 (RCP8.5) 情景显示温度升高是火灾危险加剧的主要驱动因素。春季和初夏的温度、湿度和降水变化都会增加火灾季节的长度，并可能减少春季进行规定燃烧的机会。5) 情景显示温度升高是火灾危险加剧的主要驱动因素。春季和初夏的温度、湿度和降水变化都会增加火灾季节的长度，并可能减少春季进行规定燃烧的机会。5) 情景显示温度升高是火灾危险加剧的主要驱动因素。春季和初夏的温度、湿度和降水变化都会增加火灾季节的长度，并可能减少春季进行规定燃烧的机会。