In this paper, statistical emulation is shown to be an essential tool for the end-to-end physical and numerical modelling of local tsunami impact, i.e. from the earthquake source to tsunami velocities and heights. In order to surmount the prohibitive computational cost of running a large number of simulations, the emulator, constructed using 300 training simulations from a validated tsunami code, yields 1 million predictions. This constitutes a record for any realistic tsunami code to date, and is a leap in tsunami science since high risk but low probability hazard thresholds can be quantified. For illustrating the efficacy of emulation, we map probabilistic representations of maximum tsunami velocities and heights at around 200 locations about Karachi port. The 1 million predictions comprehensively sweep through a range of possible future tsunamis originating from the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). We rigorously model each step in the tsunami life cycle: first use of the three-dimensional subduction geometry Slab2 in MSZ, most refined fault segmentation in MSZ, first sediment enhancements of seabed deformation (up to 60% locally) and bespoke unstructured meshing algorithm. Owing to the synthesis of emulation and meticulous numerical modelling, we also discover substantial local variations of currents and heights.

在本文中，统计仿真被证明是本地海啸影响（即从地震源到海啸速度和高度）的端到端物理和数值建模的重要工具。为了克服运行大量模拟的高昂计算成本，该模拟器使用来自经过验证的海啸代码的 300 个训练模拟构建，产生 100 万个预测。这构成了迄今为止任何现实海啸代码的记录，并且是海啸科学的一次飞跃，因为可以量化高风险但低概率的危险阈值。为了说明仿真的功效，我们绘制了卡拉奇港周围大约 200 个位置的最大海啸速度和高度的概率表示。100 万个预测全面覆盖了未来可能源自马克兰俯冲带 (MSZ) 的一系列海啸。我们对海啸生命周期中的每一步都进行了严格建模：首先在 MSZ 中使用三维俯冲几何 Slab2，在 MSZ 中最精细的断层分割，海底变形的第一次沉积物增强（局部高达 60%）和定制的非结构化网格划分算法。由于仿真和细致的数值建模的综合，我们还发现了电流和高度的显着局部变化。海底变形的第一次沉积物增强（局部高达 60%）和定制的非结构化网格划分算法。由于仿真和细致的数值建模的综合，我们还发现了电流和高度的显着局部变化。海底变形的第一次沉积物增强（局部高达 60%）和定制的非结构化网格划分算法。由于仿真和细致的数值建模的综合，我们还发现了电流和高度的显着局部变化。