Periods of high commodity prices and rising farmland debt loads are typically accompanied with speculation that there will eventually be declines in commodity and farmland prices that may lead to a farm credit crisis. We evaluate the likelihood of such a crisis using a simulation model of heterogeneous farmers during periods of volatile commodity and farmland prices. This model simulates a period of increasing commodity and farmland prices with a subsequent drop in prices of farmland and commodities. We find default rates are less sensitive to commodity prices than farmland prices, that the length of time prices remain low matters significantly, and that when both farmland and commodity prices fall together defaults rise more than the sum of the responses to separate price shocks.

中文翻译：

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农地和商品价格下跌下农地贷款违约风险

商品价格高企和农田债务负担增加的时期通常伴随着对商品和农田价格最终会下跌可能导致农业信贷危机的猜测。我们在商品和农田价格波动期间使用异质农民的模拟模型来评估这种危机的可能性。该模型模拟了商品和农地价格上涨以及农地和商品价格随后下降的时期。我们发现违约率对商品价格的敏感度不如农田价格，价格保持低位的时间长短很重要，当农田和商品价格一起下跌时，违约率上升超过对单独价格冲击的反应之和。