In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment strategies is required to avoid exceeding social and economical costs as well as a dangerous ‘second wave’ of the pandemic. In this work, we combine a recently developed dynamical density functional theory model and an extended SIRD model with hysteresis to study effects of various measures and strategies using realistic parameters. Depending on intervention thresholds, a variety of phases with different numbers of shutdowns and deaths are found. Spatiotemporal simulations provide further insights into the dynamics of a second wave. Our results are of crucial importance for public health policy.

为应对全球爆发的冠状病毒病 COVID-19，已经实施了各种非药物干预措施，例如口罩和社交距离。需要仔细评估此类遏制策略的影响，以避免超出社会和经济成本以及大流行的危险“第二波”。在这项工作中，我们将最近开发的动态密度泛函理论模型和具有滞后的扩展 SIRD 模型相结合，以使用现实参数研究各种措施和策略的影响。根据干预阈值，可以找到具有不同停机和死亡次数的各种阶段。时空模拟提供了对第二波动力学的进一步见解。我们的结果对公共卫生政策至关重要。