In the national security system of the Russian Federation, food security (FS) is also one of the important tasks, since without a reliable food supply, it is impossible to avoid dependence on other States. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 20 of January 21, 2020 “On the Approval of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation” approved a new FS Doctrine. The doctrine considers the FS as a multi-component system that includes, as components, the availability of food, its economic, social and physical availability, stability over a long period of time, as well as food issues. To provide cognitive modeling, we can represent the FS support system as a weighted directed graph, whose points correspond to the elements of the set, and whose arcs correspond to the non-zero elements of the W relation. The ratio W can be represented as a matrix of dimension n*n, where n is the number of factors, which can be considered as the adjacency matrix of the graph. The dynamics of the evolution of the simulated socio-economic system and the forecast of its development were obtained by summing increments. The components of the vector of predicted increments of the FCM calculated using the adjacency matrix are calculated at consecutive points in time. It is shown that the following concepts should be taken as key concepts in cognitive modeling of the level of FS: production, consumption, stocks and imports of food, as well as a number of additional ones that characterize the ecological and economic infrastructure for ensuring PB. Modeling has shown that the fluctuating nature of changes in the indicators of all concepts during the transition period forms 3 groups: increasing (FS level, Production, Crop production), stagnating (Consumption) and falling indicators (Import, Irrigation reclamation, Economy, Ecology). The identified trends in the evolution of the main concepts of the level of food security in the context of import substitution should be taken into account when developing programs to ensure FS by subjects of various levels.

在俄罗斯联邦的国家安全体系中，粮食安全（FS）也是重要任务之一，因为没有可靠的粮食供应，就不可能避免对其他国家的依赖。2020 年 1 月 21 日第 20 号俄罗斯联邦总统令“关于批准俄罗斯联邦粮食安全学说”批准了新的 FS 学说。该学说将 FS 视为一个多组成部分系统，其中包括作为组成部分的粮食供应、其经济、社会和物质供应、长期稳定性以及粮食问题。为了提供认知建模，我们可以将 FS 支持系统表示为加权有向图，其点对应于集合的元素，其弧对应于 W 关系的非零元素。比率 W 可以表示为维度为 n*n 的矩阵，其中 n 是因子的个数，可以认为是图的邻接矩阵。模拟的社会经济系统的演化动态及其发展预测是通过对增量求和获得的。使用邻接矩阵计算的 FCM 的预测增量向量的分量是在连续的时间点计算的。研究表明，以下概念应作为 FS 水平认知建模的关键概念：食品的生产、消费、库存和进口，以及用于确保 PB 的生态和经济基础设施特征的一些附加概念. 建模表明，转型期所有概念指标变化的波动性形成 3 组：上升（FS 水平、生产、作物生产）、停滞（消费）和下降指标（进口、灌溉复垦、经济、生态）。在制定计划以确保各级主题的粮食安全时，应考虑进口替代背景下粮食安全水平主要概念演变中已确定的趋势。