Flux and impact angles were calculated for asteroid collisions with Earth and the Moon, using the latest population models for the distribution of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and precession models to determine the impact probabilities. The calculations predict that the flux of impacts to the poles for Earth is 22% greater than the flux at the equator, and 55% greater for the Moon. Impacts near the equator typically have shallower impact angles with a mode near 30 above the horizontal. Conversely, impacts near the poles are typically steep with a mode close to 65. Our new analysis updates the previously published results by Le Feuvre & Wieczorek incorporating: (1) an updated debiased distribution of NEOs, and (2) updated collision probabilities that account for Lidov–Kozai precession. The new impact distributions provide an important update to risk models, showing a 7% increase in average population risks from sub-300 m impactors, compared to previous atmospheric entry distributions, mostly due to faster impact velocities.

使用最新的近地天体 (NEO) 分布人口模型和进动模型来计算小行星与地球和月球碰撞的通量和撞击角，以确定撞击概率。计算预测地球两极的撞击通量比赤道的通量高 22%，月球的通量高 55%。赤道附近的撞击通常具有较浅的撞击角，其模式在水平面上方 30 度附近。相反，极地附近的撞击通常是陡峭的，模态接近 65。我们的新分析更新了 Le Feuvre 和 Wieczorek 先前发表的结果，包括：(1) 更新的近地天体无偏分布，以及 (2) 更新的碰撞概率为 Lidov-Kozai 岁差。