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More than a nuisance: measuring how sea level rise delays commuters in Miami, FL
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfd5c
Mathew Hauer 1, 2 , Valerie Mueller 3, 4 , Glenn Sheriff 3 , Qing Zhong 5
Affiliation  

Sea level rise increases coastal cities’ exposure to tidal flooding and elevates the risk of transportation routes being compromised at high tide. Using Miami, Florida as a case study, we combine tide gauge, elevation, road network, and worker location data with a route optimization algorithm to model how tidal flooding affected commute times between 2002–2004 and 2015–2017. Results suggest tidal flooding increases annual commutes by 15 min on average and 274 min among the most heavily impacted areas. Additionally, approximately 14 000 commuters may be unable to reach their workplace due to tidal flooding at least once per year. Accommodation via dynamic adjustments in residential and work locations may reduce tidal commuting delays by as much as 70%, particularly among the highest earners. Many of the most affected areas do not experience flooding directly, expanding the purview of vulnerability beyond simple residential risk. Using 2060 extreme sea-level rise scenarios without accommodating behavior, mean annual commute delays are expected to reach 220 min with over 55 000 commuters potentially unable to reach their destinations.



中文翻译:

不仅仅是麻烦:测量海平面上升如何延迟佛罗里达州迈阿密的通勤者

海平面上升增加了沿海城市遭受潮汐洪水的风险,并增加了运输路线在涨潮时受到破坏的风险。以佛罗里达州迈阿密为例,我们将潮汐测量仪、海拔、道路网络和工人位置数据与路线优化算法相结合,以模拟潮汐洪水如何影响 2002-2004 年和 2015-2017 年之间的通勤时间。结果表明,潮汐洪水使受灾最严重地区的年度通勤时间平均增加了 15 分钟,增加了 274 分钟。此外,每年至少有一次潮汐洪水导致大约 14 000 名通勤者可能无法到达他们的工作地点。通过动态调整住宅和工作地点的住宿可以将潮汐通勤延误减少多达 70%,尤其是在收入最高的人群中。许多受灾最严重的地区不会直接遭受洪水,这将脆弱性的范围扩大到了简单的住宅风险之外。使用不考虑行为的 2060 年极端海平面上升情景,平均每年通勤延误预计将达到 220 分钟,超过 55 000 名通勤者可能无法到达目的地。

更新日期:2021-05-27
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