Floods that cause yearly economic losses and casualties have increased in frequency with global warming. Assessing the mortality risks of populations due to flooding is important and necessary for risk management and disaster reduction. Thus, this paper develops a method for assessing global mortality risks due to river flooding. Global historical annual death tolls are first estimated during the historical period 1986–2005 (T₀) by using available mortality vulnerability functions of river flooding. Then, the best vulnerability function is selected according to lower root mean square errors (RMSE) and the differences in the multi-year mean (DMYM) values. Next, the adjustment coefficient K _c for each country (region) is calculated to use in the revision of the selected vulnerability function. Finally, the mortality risks are estimated based on an adjusted vulnerability function. As a case, the paper assessed and analysed the global mortality risks due to river flooding during 2016–2035 (2030s) and 2046–2065 (2050s) for the combined scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2), and the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. The results show that the estimation errors of the death tolls in most countries (regions) decrease after adjusting the vulnerability function. Under the current defense capacity and vulnerability level, the average annual death tolls of RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 in the 2030s will increase by 1.05 times and 0.93 times compared with the historical period. They will increase 1.89 and 2.20 times, respectively for the two scenarios during 2050s. High-risk areas are distributed in the south-eastern Eurasia.

随着全球变暖，每年造成经济损失和人员伤亡的洪水频发。评估因洪水导致的人口死亡风险对于风险管理和减灾而言非常重要且必要。因此，本文开发了一种评估河流洪水造成的全球死亡风险的方法。全球历史年度死亡人数首先是在 1986 年至 2005 年的历史时期 (T ₀ ) 通过使用河流洪水的可用死亡率脆弱性函数估计的。然后，根据较低的均方根误差 (RMSE) 和多年平均值 (DMYM) 值的差异选择最佳脆弱性函数。接着，将调整系数ķ _Ç为每个国家（地区）计算用于修订选定漏洞的函数。最后，根据调整后的脆弱性函数估计死亡风险。作为案例，该论文评估和分析了 2016-2035（2030 年代）和 2046-2065（2050 年代）期间河流洪水导致的全球死亡风险，适用于代表性浓度路径 4.5（RCP4.5）和共享社会经济的组合情景。途径 2 (SSP2) 和 RCP8.5-SSP5 方案。结果表明，调整脆弱性函数后，大多数国家（地区）死亡人数的估计误差均有所减小。在当前防御能力和脆弱性水平下，2030年代RCP4.5-SSP2和RCP8.5-SSP5的年均死亡人数将比历史时期分别增加1.05倍和0.93倍。到 2050 年代，这两种情景将分别增加 1.89 和 2.20 倍。高风险地区分布在欧亚大陆东南部。