The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) has profound impacts on extreme weather events and climate variability. Factors influencing the AWP and its predictability are still not fully understood. Other than local ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and El Nio Southern Oscillation, we find an extratropical precursor from the Northeast Pacific (known as the Blob), which leads the AWP by 1 year with a robust correlation (r = 0.68). A suite of Northeast Pacific pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the leading influence of the Blob on the AWP. The preceding summer Blob-related sea surface temperature (SST) warming signal can be transmitted towards the lower latitudes through the seasonal footprint mechanism, leading to the central Pacific warming in the winter and following spring. Such a strong tropical Pacific SST heating excites an anomalous atmospheric wave train that resembles the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. At the downstream portion of the PNA, the low sea surface pressure anomalies can be found over the AWP region during the following spring. The anomalous low initiates the AWP SST warming, and the AWP warmer SST can persist into summer and is further amplified due to ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. Our results show that the North Pacific Blob may act as a useful predictor of the AWP 1 year in advance through trans-basin interactions. A Blob-based prediction model shows considerable hindcast skill for the observed AWP SST anomaly.

大西洋暖池（AWP）对极端天气事件和气候变率有着深远的影响。影响 AWP 及其可预测性的因素仍未完全了解。除了局地海洋-大气反馈和厄尔尼奥南方涛动之外，我们还发现了来自东北太平洋的温带前兆（称为 Blob），它比 AWP 领先 1 年，具有很强的相关性（r= 0.68）。一系列东北太平洋起搏器实验成功再现了 Blob 对 AWP 的主要影响。之前的夏季与 Blob 相关的海面温度 (SST) 变暖信号可以通过季节性足迹机制向低纬度传递，导致冬季和随后的春季太平洋中部变暖。如此强烈的热带太平洋海温加热激发了异常的大气波列，类似于太平洋/北美 (PNA) 遥相关模式。在 PNA 的下游部分，可以在接下来的春天在 AWP 区域发现低海面压力异常。异常低气压引发了 AWP SST 变暖，AWP 偏暖的 SST 可以持续到夏季，并由于海洋-大气反馈而进一步放大。我们的结果表明，通过跨盆地相互作用，北太平洋 Blob 可以作为提前 1 年 AWP 的有用预测器。基于 Blob 的预测模型对观察到的 AWP SST 异常显示出相当大的后报技巧。