Abstract

Multiplier effects play a major role in determining importance of a sector of interest to the national economy. In order to determine the significance of Croatian transport sectors, in this paper input-output analysis was applied. A comparative analysis of type I and type II output, gross value added and employment multipliers based on input-output tables for Croatian economy for the year 2010 and 2015 was performed. Type I multipliers were calculated based on the open IO model. Closed IO model was used in type II multipliers determination. Results indicate that sector code H49—Land transport services and transport services via pipelines and sector code H50—Water transport services in the year 2015 recorded lower type I and type II output, gross value added and employment multipliers compared to the year 2010. For sector code H51—Air transport services, significant growth in terms of all three economic indicators was detected, especially when interest is focused on type I and type II employment multipliers. Results presented in this paper could be valuable for academia and general public because they reflect multipliers estimation of transport sectors in Republic of Croatia for the first time based on sound macroeconomic analysis tool.

摘要

乘数效应在确定相关部门对国民经济的重要性方面发挥着重要作用。为了确定克罗地亚交通部门的重要性，本文应用了投入产出分析。根据克罗地亚经济 2010 年和 2015 年的投入产出表，对 I 类和 II 类产出、总增加值和就业乘数进行了比较分析。I 类乘数是根据开放 IO 模型计算的。闭式 IO 模型用于 II 型乘数确定。结果表明，与 2010 年相比，2015 年行业代码 H49（陆路运输服务和管道运输服务）和行业代码 H50（水运服务）的 I 类和 II 类产出、总增加值和就业乘数较低。对于部门代码 H51——航空运输服务，所有三个经济指标都出现了显着增长，尤其是当人们关注 I 类和 II 类就业乘数时。本文提出的结果可能对学术界和公众有价值，因为它们首次基于健全的宏观经济分析工具反映了克罗地亚共和国交通部门的乘数估计。