Mangroves around the world provide humanity with a variety of ecosystem services. However, rising populations coupled with human activities jeopardize the sustainable management of these ecosystems. Climate change is also expected to have a severe impact on mangrove ecosystems, especially in Benin, West Africa. Since 2000, several initiatives for the conservation of mangroves have been established under the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land use/land cover (LULC) changes were used at Ramsar Site 1017 in Benin for periods in 1995, 2005 and 2015 to assess the impact of the Ramsar Convention on mangrove ecosystem conservation. The observed changes during 1995–2005 and 2005–2015 were considered to predict LULC change towards 2070 using the Markov chain model. During 1995–2005, a total area of 3.43 ha of mangroves was degraded, while during the 2005–2015 period 2.65 ha were restored. Future scenarios predicted that the area of mangroves was expected to decrease by more than half between 1995 and 2070, assuming the dynamic of 1995–2005, and increase by 1.1% of the 2005 area by 2070 with the dynamic of 2005–2015. Implementation of conservation policies, projects and awareness-raising activities could contribute to the effective restoration of the mangrove ecosystems.

世界各地的红树林为人类提供各种生态系统服务。然而，不断增加的人口加上人类活动危及这些生态系统的可持续管理。预计气候变化也会对红树林生态系统产生严重影响，尤其是在西非贝宁。自 2000 年以来，根据《拉姆萨尔湿地公约》制定了多项保护红树林的举措。1995 年、2005 年和 2015 年期间，贝宁 Ramsar Site 1017 使用土地利用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 变化来评估拉姆萨尔公约对红树林生态系统保护的影响。1995-2005 和 2005-2015 期间观察到的变化被认为可以使用马尔可夫链模型预测 2070 年的 LULC 变化。1995 年至 2005 年期间，总共有 3.43 公顷的红树林退化，而在 2005-2015 年期间，恢复了 2.65 公顷。未来情景预测，假设 1995-2005 年的动态，红树林面积在 1995 年至 2070 年期间预计将减少一半以上，到 2070 年，红树林面积将增加 2005 年的 1.1%，以 2005-2015 年为动态。保护政策、项目和提高认识活动的实施有助于红树林生态系统的有效恢复。