While there is a substantial body of literature on the consequences of terror attacks on public attitudes toward state institutions in Western democracies, little is known about the impact that such events have in the context of armed conflict. We address this gap by exploring the attitudinal effects of a 2012 Taliban attack on civilians in Kabul City, Afghanistan. We test two competing hypotheses: the “rally-effect” hypothesis according to which individuals increase their trust in incumbent institutions in the aftermath of violent attacks and the “accountability” hypothesis according to which individuals punish state institutions for their inability to provide security by withdrawing trust. Leveraging a quasi-experiment that compares individuals interviewed before the attack to individuals interviewed thereafter, we find that the attack—in line with the rally-effect hypothesis—increased trust in several state institutions among residents of Kabul City.

中文翻译：

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责备还是支持？大规模叛乱分子袭击平民和国家机构的公共信任

虽然有大量文献论述恐怖袭击对西方民主国家公众对国家机构的态度的影响，但对此类事件在武装冲突背景下的影响知之甚少。我们通过探讨 2012 年塔利班袭击阿富汗喀布尔市平民的态度影响来解决这一差距。我们检验了两个相互竞争的假设：“集会效应”假设，即个人在暴力袭击之后增加对现有机构的信任，以及“问责制”假设，即个人通过退出来惩罚国家机构无法提供安全相信。利用准实验将袭击前接受采访的个人与袭击后接受采访的个人进行比较，