Abstract

Landslide hazard is usually incorporated into land-use planning as susceptibility zoning. Multiple-variable models have been widely used for susceptibility zoning due to their advantage to use different performance techniques to improve their prediction capacity. In Chile, the incorporation of landslide hazard into land-use planning instruments lacks a frame of reference that defines the susceptibility zoning and potential methodologies to be used. To overcome this lack of reference, this study assessed the applicability of GLM and GAM models in the establishment of susceptibility zoning guidelines. The application of both models identified the areas-prone to landslides in enough detail for a scale <1:15.000. The prediction of these zones was improved after spatial k-fold cross-validation, which indicated a slight advantage of the GAM model over the GLM model in susceptibility prediction capacity. The resulting zoning areas for low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility were very similar for the GLM and GAM models.

摘要

滑坡灾害通常作为敏感区划纳入土地利用规划。多变量模型因其使用不同性能技术来提高其预测能力的优势而被广泛用于敏感性分区。在智利，将滑坡灾害纳入土地利用规划工具缺乏一个参考框架来定义敏感区划和可能使用的方法。为了克服这种缺乏参考的问题，本研究评估了 GLM 和 GAM 模型在建立敏感性分区指南中的适用性。两种模型的应用都以足够详细的比例确定了容易发生滑坡的区域，比例小于 1:15.000。这些区域的预测在空间 k 折交叉验证后得到改进，这表明 GAM 模型在敏感性预测能力上比 GLM 模型略有优势。GLM 和 GAM 模型的低、中、高和极高敏感性的分区区域非常相似。