This paper investigates, for the first time, the uncertainty on the tourism of North Africa and uncertainty on the second-degree effects of the North African tourism sector. The study uses data from 1995 to 2019 and a structural vector autoregression to perform the investigation. The research finds that uncertainties, measured by the uncertainty of Europe, the uncertainty of the Middle East and Central Asia, and the volatility of GDP growth of the Euro area, have significant negative effects on investment and job creation in, as well as the contribution to the GDP of, the North African tourism sector. The paper invents a new proxy of risk, measured by the volatility of crude oil production in North Africa, and finds that this new risk measure has a significant negative impact on the North African tourism sector. The results show that geopolitical risk and the uncertainty of Africa do not significantly affect the North African tourism sector. The paper suggests that policymakers in North Africa subsidize tourism-related activities and explore new markets to attract tourists during periods of high risk and uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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北非的风险、不确定性和旅游业

本文首次考察了北非旅游业的不确定性和北非旅游业二级效应的不确定性。该研究使用 1995 年至 2019 年的数据和结构向量自回归进行调查。研究发现，以欧洲的不确定性、中东和中亚的不确定性以及欧元区GDP增长的波动性衡量的不确定性，对投资和创造就业的影响显着，以及对经济增长的贡献。北非旅游业的国内生产总值。该论文发明了一种新的风险替代指标，通过北非原油产量的波动性来衡量，并发现这种新的风险衡量指标对北非旅游业产生了显着的负面影响。结果表明，地缘政治风险和非洲的不确定性对北非旅游业没有显着影响。该文件建议北非的政策制定者补贴与旅游相关的活动，并在高风险和不确定时期开拓新市场以吸引游客。