We perform a rare-event study on a simulated power system in which grid-scale batteries provide both regulation and emergency frequency control ancillary services. Using a model of random power disturbances at each bus, we employ the skipping sampler, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for rare-event sampling, to build conditional distributions of the power disturbances leading to two kinds of instability: frequency excursions outside the normal operating band, and load shedding. Potential saturation in the benefits, and competition between the two services, are explored as the battery maximum power output increases.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘The mathematics of energy systems’.

我们对模拟电力系统进行了一项罕见事件研究，其中电网规模的电池提供调节和紧急频率控制辅助服务。在每条总线上使用随机功率扰动模型，我们采用跳跃采样器，一种用于罕见事件采样的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法，来构建导致两种不稳定的功率扰动的条件分布：正常运行之外的频率偏移带和减载。随着电池最大功率输出的增加，探索了收益的潜在饱和以及两种服务之间的竞争。

这篇文章是主题问题“能量系统的数学”的一部分。